Morning news briefing — 1 November 2026
Sunday, 08:05 · Kyiv · Events of 30–31 October
Key developments: further damage to Ukraine's energy system, a European Commission proposal on financing for 2027, and a sharp deterioration in oil and equity markets.
1. Kyiv's energy system: fresh strikes and widespread outages
31 October · Ukraine
According to the president, Russian attacks left more than 80,000 households in Kyiv region and around 200,000 in Dnipropetrovsk region without electricity. DTEK confirmed another strike on a Kyiv combined heat and power plant and a deterioration in the energy system; these figures refer to 31 October, not the present moment.
Why it matters: risks to industrial output, logistics, business costs and inflation are increasing. For KVARTA–MACRO and DST, this is a reason to revise scenarios for energy constraints.
2. European Commission proposes €45 billion in support for Ukraine in 2027
30 October · Brussels
The European Commission proposed that the Council of the EU approve the second part of the Ukraine Support Loan package, worth €45 billion. Up to €13.3 billion is earmarked for budget support and €31.7 billion for the defence industry; a final Council decision is still required.
Allocation of the proposed €45 billion
Budget — €13.3 billion
Defence — €31.7 billion
Why it matters: this is a key development for KVARTA–FISCAL 2027. The entire €45 billion must not be treated as a receipt into the Treasury Single Account: the defence component, budget tranches, conditions and timing of use must be modelled separately.
European Commission — official decision
3. Brent reaches $117.63 after incidents in the Strait of Hormuz
30 October · Global energy markets
Reuters reports fresh incidents involving tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said four vessels had been damaged, but not all of these claims have been independently verified; the British maritime authority separately reported that a tanker had been struck by an unidentified projectile.
Brent, 30 October
$117.63
+2.4% on the day
WTI, 30 October
$104.12
+2.08% on the day
Friday's closing prices, Reuters.
Why it matters: high oil prices increase the risk of more expensive diesel, agricultural logistics and fertiliser production. KVARTA–DST needs a new stress scenario, but the pass-through of an oil shock to retail prices is neither immediate nor proportional.
Reuters — global markets and oil
4. US equities fall sharply on doubts over returns from AI investment
30 October · United States
Following technology companies' earnings reports, the Nasdaq fell 2.86%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.82% and Intel shares plunged 28.6%. Investors are scrutinising cash flows and returns on large-scale capital spending on artificial intelligence.
Why it matters: for KVARTA–INVEST DUAL-50, this is a fresh test of concentrated technology risk. STATIC and FLEX should be compared using actual market prices, without automatically assuming that the dynamic strategy has already won.
Reuters — technology stock sell-off
5. Oleshky residents evacuated during a local ceasefire
31 October · Kherson region
Ukrainian civilians returned from occupied Oleshky via Crimea, Russia and Belarus during a six-day local ceasefire. The operation enabled humanitarian aid deliveries and the evacuation of some residents, but does not amount to a general ceasefire or a peace agreement.
Why it matters: this is a confirmed outcome of humanitarian negotiations. However, it is premature to translate it into a baseline scenario for ending the war in KVARTA–FISCAL 2027–2032.
Reuters — evacuation from Oleshky
Analytical conclusion for KVARTA
The combined signal of recent days is rising cost and financial risks alongside improving prospects for external support for Ukraine.
Top priorities: incorporate the energy shock into the macroeconomic forecast, separate the €45 billion in European financing into budget and defence components, check oil price pass-through and reassess portfolio market risk.
The NBU decision of 29 October is not repeated as a separate story: it was covered earlier, and there have been no newly confirmed monetary policy changes over the past day.